The Cost of Retail Alpha
We tested seven families of systematic strategy on eight years of institutional-grade tick data, using realistic transaction costs. After spreads, none of the price-based strategies produced a tradable edge. A widely promoted 'liquidity sweep' method claiming a 70–80% win rate yielded a 33% win rate and lost money in 7 of 8 years. We explain why the same ideas can survive on futures but fail on leveraged CFDs.
